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Avolon forecasts 43,000 new aircraft by 2036, doubling world fleet

AVOLON, an international aircraft leasing company, forecasts that 43,000 new aircraft will be delivered over the next two decades, doubling the world's jet airliner fleet to 51,800 aircraft by 2036, according to its newly released World Fleet Forecast.

Avolon's head of strategy and author of the paper, Dick Forsberg, said: "The growth fundamentals of the airline industry remain strong for next two decades, and we expect that the cycles for aircraft orders and deliveries will continue to move in line with the broader economic cycle."

Avolon anticipates that by 2036, 16,000 aircraft will be retired from service, representing 64 per cent of today's fleet. Forty 40 per cent of future deliveries will support fleet replacement and 90 per cent of deliveries will deploy advanced technologies that will boost fuel-efficiency.

To fund these new deliveries, the report expects that a total of US$4.2 trillion in additional financing will be required, with $700 billion needed over the next five years and an average of $170 billion annually over the next decade.

To meet these needs, the roles of the various liquidity providers will continue to evolve, with operating lessors' market share increasing from 40 per cent to 50 per cent, over time, supported by increased participation by capital markets and new investor classes, Avolon said.

Of the 43,000 aircraft to be delivered over the next 20 years, 42,000 will be passenger aircraft and 800 factory-built freighters.

Twin aisle aircraft will account for 22 per cent of total deliveries, and Airbus and Boeing will account for 87 per cent of all aircraft deliveries.

Avolon's World Fleet Forecast covers all Western-built passenger and cargo jets in airline service, plus the main Russian and Chinese types.