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Alphaliner points to signs of renewed optimism in container shipping sector
ALPHALINER has hinted that there are grounds for renewed optimism for shipping lines since global container volumes are predicted to grow by six per cent by year-end, and throughput at Chinese ports rose by 9.1 per cent in the first nine months of the year.
"The strong container volume growth this year is expected to lift the multiplier to 1.7 times global GDP growth, reversing the recent downward trend that has seen the multiplier drop to below 1.0 in the previous two years," Alphaliner was cited as saying in recent analysis, reported UK's The Loadstar.
"Predictions that the container trade had reached a mature phase of its development, with volume growth expected to grow only on par with GDP, proved to be overly pessimistic, even though container volume growth is unlikely to see a return to the two to three times GDP ratio it had enjoyed prior to 2008," it wrote.
Anecdotal and statistical evidence shows a strong first nine months to the year. Shipping data attributed to PIERS and Container Trade Statistics saw both Asia-Europe and the transpacific routes grow 5.3 per cent, compared with 2016's full-year growth of 2.8 per cent and 4.3 per cent respectively.
Whether this will translate into a stronger rate environment will primarily hinge on how much more capacity shipping lines deploy, with the global fleet expected to expand by 5.8 per cent in 2018, compared with forecast growth of 4.8 per cent.
"The higher demand growth recorded this year has not been sufficient to stop a dramatic fall in spot freight rates in the third quarter, with the SCFI recording a 23 per cent fall since the end of July with the downward pressure continuing into October," said Alphaliner.
"Carriers will need to keep an eye on 2018, as the influx of new containerships will continue to put pressure on freight rates next year.
"Total new capacity due in 2018 is forecast to hit 1.72 million TEU, compared to 1.25 million TEU that will be delivered in 2017, after accounting for some deferrals from this year into next year," the analysts added.
"The strong container volume growth this year is expected to lift the multiplier to 1.7 times global GDP growth, reversing the recent downward trend that has seen the multiplier drop to below 1.0 in the previous two years," Alphaliner was cited as saying in recent analysis, reported UK's The Loadstar.
"Predictions that the container trade had reached a mature phase of its development, with volume growth expected to grow only on par with GDP, proved to be overly pessimistic, even though container volume growth is unlikely to see a return to the two to three times GDP ratio it had enjoyed prior to 2008," it wrote.
Anecdotal and statistical evidence shows a strong first nine months to the year. Shipping data attributed to PIERS and Container Trade Statistics saw both Asia-Europe and the transpacific routes grow 5.3 per cent, compared with 2016's full-year growth of 2.8 per cent and 4.3 per cent respectively.
Whether this will translate into a stronger rate environment will primarily hinge on how much more capacity shipping lines deploy, with the global fleet expected to expand by 5.8 per cent in 2018, compared with forecast growth of 4.8 per cent.
"The higher demand growth recorded this year has not been sufficient to stop a dramatic fall in spot freight rates in the third quarter, with the SCFI recording a 23 per cent fall since the end of July with the downward pressure continuing into October," said Alphaliner.
"Carriers will need to keep an eye on 2018, as the influx of new containerships will continue to put pressure on freight rates next year.
"Total new capacity due in 2018 is forecast to hit 1.72 million TEU, compared to 1.25 million TEU that will be delivered in 2017, after accounting for some deferrals from this year into next year," the analysts added.
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