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NRIC revises upwards Japan's box trade growth estimates to 3.7pc

THE forecast for Japan's container trade volume growth in fiscal year 2017 has been revised upwards for a third time this year to 3.7 per cent for a total of 12.5 million TEU by Nittsu Research Institute and Consulting Inc (NRIC).

The research arm of Nippon Express cited the reasons for its higher growth forecast to be solid exports and robust imports amid moderate domestic and overseas economic recovery, reported IHS Media.

For the fiscal year that began in April, NRIC had previously forecast container volume growth of 0.9 per cent, before revising its estimates upwards to two per cent and later on to 2.6 per cent.

Should the forecast hold, growth in Japan's container trade would accelerate by one percentage point over the growth recorded in fiscal 2016, when traffic rose 2.5 per cent year on year to 12 million TEU and reversed a drop of 2.6 per cent in fiscal 2015.

For fiscal 2017, NRIC now predicts exports will increase by 2.8 per cent to 5.1 million TEU and import volumes will grow by 4.4 per cent to 7.3 million TEU. Container exports and imports had previously been estimated to grow by 2.4 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively.

The eight major ports that NRIC bases its forecast on are: Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Osaka, Kobe, Shimizu, Yokkaichi, and Hakata. Together they account for 86 per cent of the nation's international container trade.

NRIC was cited as saying that Japan's container exports to all regions, including the United States and China, "are expected to remain in positive territory in fiscal 2017 as the global economy continues to expand moderately and risks of sluggish trade due to the rise of protectionism are receding."

Consumer goods and machinery and equipment will power the growth in imports, NRIC said, as consumer spending remains firm and businesses undertake capital intensive investments.