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Substantial growth in global box trade fails to bring about higher rates

EXPORTS from China were up 11.1 per cent to 192 million TEU in September, but container freight rates declined in all trades, reports Alphaliner.

Unlike other peak seasons, there were no reports of space shortages, as carriers added extra ships, a move that mystified shippers at the recent Journal of Commerce TPM Asia conference in Shenzhen.



Shippers noted how rates on the Asia-Europe run were strong and carrier profitability improved dramatically in the first half.



"But then what do they do? They deploy extra loaders and the freight rate starts to come down. Where is the sense in that?" one shipper asked the gathering.



While the total TEU capacity deployed in these extra loaders is not yet available, SeaIntel data shows the Asia-North Europe trade will be saddled with a 14 per cent excess of capacity in the fourth quarter that will require the blanking of 193,000 TEU.



Said APL chief executive Nicolas Sartini: "Sometimes there is a misalignment between capacity and demand, but we know how to handle these situations."



Solid demand in the first half continued in the third quarter and global box growth was on track to surpass six per cent in 2017, said Alphaliner.



"Predictions that the container trade was expected to grow on par with GDP, proved pessimistic, though volume growth is unlikely to see a return to the two to three times GDP ratio that it had enjoyed prior to 2008," said Alphaliner.



On the Asia-US west coast run, rates began to decline after July 28, and on the Asia-US east coast trade, the decline began in early August, with both the rates on routes 30 per cent down year on year.



US volume reported record increases though. Long Beach saw throughput rocket by 28.3 per cent, the Port of Virginia was up 8.2 per cent, and South Carolina Ports Authority reported a 10 per cent growth. Savannah handled more than one million TEU in the first quarter of its financial year 2018, up 5.8 per cent year on year.



European port throughputs are not yet in, although Rotterdam volume was up 10 per cent in the first nine months of 2017 to 10.2 million TEU. Solid performances are also expected at Antwerp, Le Havre and Hamburg.



Carriers are aggressively trying to raise rates on the Asia-Europe/Med and Asia-North America trades, with some carriers, such as Hapag-Lloyd, hitting the market with a rate increase every two weeks until mid-November.
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