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Optimism in US of peak season emerging with H1 imports up 3.5pc YoY

PROSPECTS for a peak season this year in the US appear to be cautiously optimistic, with import numbers through the first six months of the year up 3.5 per cent, whereas they remained flat during the same period last year.

Positive signs of a peak season occuring include healthy manufacturing output, and continually improving business-to-consumer conditions, due mainly to ever-increasing e-commerce activity.



Economic conditions aside, determining whether or not there will be an actual peak season, to a large degree, can be viewed as tricky to be kind, especially when taking into account which part of the supply chain a person participates in, reported Logistics Management, Framingham, Massachusetts.



For example, Chuck Hammel, president of Pittsburgh-based less-than-truckload carrier commented: "I am not so sure there is even a peak season anymore."



But a Logistics Management survey of 60 logistics and supply chain professionals told a different story, showing that 58 per cent expect this year's peak season to be more active than last year (up from 39.8 per cent last year), with 6.5 per cent expecting it to be less active (down from 19.4 per cent in 2016), and 35.5 per cent not expecting a change (down from 40.7 per cent last year).



The Port Tracker report issued by maritime consultancy Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation, anticipates United States-bound retail container volumes to hit an all-time high this summer.



Port Tracker is projecting July to hit 1.71 million TEU for a 5.1 per cent annual increase, with August expected to be up 2.2 per cent annually at 1.75 million TEU. Should the August figure come in as projected, the report said it would stand as the single highest volume month since the NRF initially started tracking import volumes in 2000.



Looking back at the 2016 peak season to get a handle on the 2017 peak season is somewhat of an inexact science, explained research director Chris Rogers for New York-based global trade intelligence firm Panjiva.



With the ongoing advent of e-commerce, Mr Rogers said it is expected to see a bit of a flattening in certain sectors, such as apparel, as items are moving from the design table to the customer more quickly. But he stressed one needs to remember Amazon is essentially a storefront taking business away from shopping malls, rather than containerships.



And like the Port Tracker report showed, US-bound imports are showing promise, with both the port of Los Angeles and the port of Long Beach posting impressive import growth for the period up a cumulative 5.7 per cent annually in June at 707,600 TEU.



"We expect volumes to benefit from leaner inventories throughout the supply-chain, and build sequentially before peaking in August, consistent with normal seasonality," wrote KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst, Todd Fowler. "On a full-year basis, we anticipate volumes to increase mid-single digits when considering historical sequential trends."
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