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US import volumes to grow through the summer and into fall: NRF

THE latest monthly Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates shows that import volumes US container ports are expected to see steady increases through the summer and into the fall.

The positive outlook comes as major container ports in the US reported handling 1.53 million TEU in March, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 6.8 per cent from February, when many Asian factories closed for Lunar New Year, and up 15.8 per cent from unusually low numbers the same month a year ago, when Lunar New Year came a week later than this year.

NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, Jon Gold, said: "Regardless of whether the sales come in their stores or through their websites, retailers see that consumers are buying more this year and they're importing the goods needed to meet the demand. With unemployment at its lowest level in a decade and the economy adding jobs, retailers expect shoppers to continue to increase their spending."

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett, commented: "In the United States, the economy continues to slowly grow. Gross domestic product was lower than expected in the first quarter but unemployment has dropped to levels not seen since before the Great Recession and, best of all, labour employment has increased dramatically. Our view, therefore, remains unchanged: There is nothing to worry about in the first half of the year, and growth is expected to continue in the second half even if it comes at a slower rate."

April was estimated at 1.56 million TEU, up 8.3 per cent from the same time last year. May is forecast at 1.66 million TEU, up 2.6 per cent from last year; June at 1.62 million TEU, up 3.3 per cent; July at 1.68 million TEU, up 3.1 per cent; August at 1.74 million TEU, up 1.6 per cent, and September at 1.65 million TEU, up 3.6 per cent.

The first half of 2017 is expected to total 9.5 million TEU, up 5.6 per cent from the first half of 2016. Cargo volume for 2016 totalled 18.8 million TEU, up 3.1 per cent from 2015, which had grown 5.4 per cent from 2014.

NRF previously forecast that 2017 retail sales - excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants - will increase between 3.7 and 4.2 per cent over 2016, driven by job and income growth coupled with low debt. Cargo volume does not correlate directly with sales because only the number of containers is counted, not the value of the cargo inside, but nonetheless provides a barometer of retailers' expectations.

The US ports covered in the report are Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Houston.