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November air cargo volume up 6.9pc for best peak season in years

THE usual air cargo peak season at the end of the year is shaping up as one of the better ones in a long time, reports the American Journal of Transportation.

Financial yields increased by a much larger percentage than in previous years, while November showed an acceleration in year-on-year tonnage growth for the fourth month in a row.

Globally, financial yield improved in November by 3.9 per cent over the previous month (and by 8.7 per cent compared with August), while volume increased by 6.9 per cent.

Deviating from the trend of earlier months, growth in direct ton kilometres (DTK) was only slightly higher this time (7.1 per cent), indicating a smaller shift towards longer haul traffic than in previous months. One of the influencing factors was the boom in the relative short-haul intra-Asia traffic in November (+15 per cent).

Exports from China and Hong Kong played a major role in the positive end-of-year developments. In the main markets from Asia Pacific, between August and November financial yield to North America rose 25 per cent, and to Europe by 30 per cent.

Air cargo has not seen such seasonal yield improvements since 2009. Volume increases since the summer were spectacular in markets from Hong Kong (+30 per cent) and Shanghai (+17 per cent), also higher than in previous years, according to the American Journal of Transportation.

It must be said that the revenue growth was realised from a low basis. Yet, this year's peak season can be called a success. Although growth was concentrated in Asia Pacific, we have no doubt that the typical 'perishables exporters" Egypt, US Pacific, Chile and Colombia will also subscribe to this view, as their volume increase for perishables in the period October/November ranged between 16 per cent (Chile) and 34 per cent (Egypt).

Looking at longer-term trends in the world's main geographical markets, noteworthy developments in the years since 2010 were recorded. Whereas most markets continued to show the directional balance (or imbalance) they already had in 2010, the market between Europe and Asia Pacific did not.

In six years' time, there was hardly any growth from Asia Pacific to Europe, but growth was 39 per cent in the opposite direction, creating a reversal of the balance: air cargo volumes from Europe to Asia Pacific have now overtaken the volumes in the opposite direction, speaking for the increasing purchasing power of Asia.

Over the same period, there was strong growth in the smaller markets from Africa to the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) (+73 per cent), from Central & South America to Asia Pacific (+58 per cent), and within the MESA area (+55 per cent).

The real 'outlier" over the past six years has been the market between Africa and North America which contracted by 20 per cent in both directions. The origin countries faring exceptionally well over the same long term were China south-east and west, Vietnam, Turkey, Norway, Luxembourg and Poland, all growing on average by more than 10 per cent each year since 2010.