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Boeing still positive despite lowering air cargo growth rate forecast
US PLANEMAKER Boeing has lowered its forecast for global air cargo demand over the next 20 years, but it still expects the same number of freighters to be required.
Addressing a press conference at the Tiaca Air Cargo Forum in Paris, Boeing vice president Randy Tinseth said he expects air cargo demand to grow 4.2 per cent per year over the next 20 years. It had predicted a growth of 4.7 per cent two years ago, and a growth of 3.7 per cent between 2016 and 2020, noted London's Air Cargo News.
"We did bring the growth rate down and what we see is very consistent with other sources like IATA and Airbus. We all believe in time that freight will come back, it's just a question of when.
"We used to see a market where cargo grew twice what was happening in global trade and our analysis shows that the relationship has slowed down.
"Trade slowed and also that relationship slowed and I think that is down to China. Industrial production in China was really pushing this industry and since that has slowed and come more in line with the rest of the world we have seen that relationship with trade and cargo change."
Mr Tinseth also pointed out that when it makes a forecast it isn't looking at previous numbers and starts afresh each time.
Looking at the number of freighter aircraft that will be needed over the coming 20 years, the airline manufacturer said it expected this to be largely unchanged at around 2,370 aircraft - 930 new and 1,440 converted.
These aircraft will be required to replace aging freighters and also to meet demand growth.
Of the production freighters, 550 will be large widebodies capable of carrying more than 80 tonnes, and 380 will be medium-sized freighters that can carry between 40 and 80 tonnes.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes regional director, airline market analysis marketing & business development, Tom Crabtree said that more aircraft suitable for the express and e-commerce industries would be needed than previously thought.
Addressing a press conference at the Tiaca Air Cargo Forum in Paris, Boeing vice president Randy Tinseth said he expects air cargo demand to grow 4.2 per cent per year over the next 20 years. It had predicted a growth of 4.7 per cent two years ago, and a growth of 3.7 per cent between 2016 and 2020, noted London's Air Cargo News.
"We did bring the growth rate down and what we see is very consistent with other sources like IATA and Airbus. We all believe in time that freight will come back, it's just a question of when.
"We used to see a market where cargo grew twice what was happening in global trade and our analysis shows that the relationship has slowed down.
"Trade slowed and also that relationship slowed and I think that is down to China. Industrial production in China was really pushing this industry and since that has slowed and come more in line with the rest of the world we have seen that relationship with trade and cargo change."
Mr Tinseth also pointed out that when it makes a forecast it isn't looking at previous numbers and starts afresh each time.
Looking at the number of freighter aircraft that will be needed over the coming 20 years, the airline manufacturer said it expected this to be largely unchanged at around 2,370 aircraft - 930 new and 1,440 converted.
These aircraft will be required to replace aging freighters and also to meet demand growth.
Of the production freighters, 550 will be large widebodies capable of carrying more than 80 tonnes, and 380 will be medium-sized freighters that can carry between 40 and 80 tonnes.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes regional director, airline market analysis marketing & business development, Tom Crabtree said that more aircraft suitable for the express and e-commerce industries would be needed than previously thought.
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