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Top UK economist mulls today's robust labour, retail results vs Brexit vote
THE chief economist at Britain's Office of National Statistics (ONS), Joe Grice, says it is too early to say whether the Brexit vote will bring on a widely expected recession.
Mr Grice was speaking to Bloomberg after data showed stronger-than-expected retail sales, which rose 1.4 per cent in July and a generally strong labour market.
"Does that mean there won't be a recession? No," said Mr Grice. "The story is still to unfold. We know something about the first month of how consumers behaved. We don't know how they will behave as the effects of the falling pound come through, and we don't know how businesses will behave."
He said real story will unfold over the next few weeks and months as the data comes in.
The retail sales followed separate data showing the labour market remained robust in the second quarter. A potential acceleration in inflation could weigh on consumers, though a weaker pound may offset that by helping exports.
Mr Grice was speaking to Bloomberg after data showed stronger-than-expected retail sales, which rose 1.4 per cent in July and a generally strong labour market.
"Does that mean there won't be a recession? No," said Mr Grice. "The story is still to unfold. We know something about the first month of how consumers behaved. We don't know how they will behave as the effects of the falling pound come through, and we don't know how businesses will behave."
He said real story will unfold over the next few weeks and months as the data comes in.
The retail sales followed separate data showing the labour market remained robust in the second quarter. A potential acceleration in inflation could weigh on consumers, though a weaker pound may offset that by helping exports.
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