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Drewry: 35pc shippers expect low peak season, dashing rate hike hopes

IN a poll undertaken by London's Drewry Maritime Research, 35 per cent of shippers expect volumes to be lower than last year's peak season months of July, August and September, only 18 per cent anticipate an increase and 47 per cent expect a status quo.

The poor state of the global economy was the most common reason given by shipper respondents for their pessimistic growth forecast. "We don't expect any peak whatsoever given the capacity in the market and an overall subdued global economy," one shipper was cited as saying reported The Loadstar.

The survey questioned shippers and beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) between May 27 and June 16 with responses mostly coming from shippers trading between Asia, North America and Europe.

Despite capacity cutbacks and anecdotal reports in recent weeks of full ships and rolled over cargo, 78 per cent of shippers said they were "not worried about obtaining space" during the peak season.

Of the 10 per cent of respondents that did express concerns about space shortages, some cited the increased use of blanked sailings by carriers, while others expressed concerns about the impact of the new container weighing regulations coming into force on July 1, disrupting the supply chain.

Meanwhile, despite a second week of decline in Asia-Europe container spot rates, carriers on the route are endeavouring to push through July 1 general rate increases (GRI) of up to US$1,500 per TEU, together with a raft of peak season surcharges (PSSs).

However, in order for these carrier rate restorations to be effective shippers need to be concerned about their ability to get their containers on their nominated ships, but it is apparent from Drewry's poll that so far there is no evidence of any panic by shippers.

"There will be no demand push to bolster carrier sales in the peak season so we expect more supply-side manoeuvres to push through GRIs/PSSs," said Drewry.