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Prognosis for air freight demand in 2016 is mixed at best
AS 2016 begins, the prognosis isn't good for an air freight rebound, after several years of a soft market, according to industry experts, reports the Puget Sound Business Journal.
One of the more positive outlooks comes from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in Geneva.
IATA said the "decline in cargo demand may be bottoming out", after dropping 1.2 per cent in November, compared to the same month a year before.
"But there is a great deal of uncertainty," said IATA director general Tony Tyler and former CEO of Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways.
"The current volatility of stock markets shows how much the health of the global economy - upon which air cargo depends - remains on a knife-edge," he said.
Less optimistic is UK-based transport consultancy Drewry, quoted by Seattle-based Cargo Facts.
"We are forecasting another year of flat lining growth in 2016 as international air freight volumes are weighed down by lacklustre development in global trade," Drewry said.
"The combination of zero growth and rising capacity will put further pressure on already depressed freight rate levels," said Drewry analysts.
In Seattle, Air Cargo Management Group managing director Bob Dahl projects a three to five per cent growth in air freight demand this year, while saying external conditions will be difficult.
"The economy looks like it's not growing at a great rate," he said. "Issues with China, the stock market having lot of early year jitters, suggest overall market circumstances are not that great."
Air freight matters for future 747-8 orders, because while the four-engine model is being superseded by more efficient twin-engine wide bodies for passenger travel, the biggest Boeing plane continues to be the most capable freight hauler in the world, said the report.
Specifically, it offers tilt-nose loading, a feature that allows unusual heavy cargoes to be loaded. But Boeing has only seven 747 freighters on order now, out of unfilled orders for just 20 model 747-8s.
One of the more positive outlooks comes from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in Geneva.
IATA said the "decline in cargo demand may be bottoming out", after dropping 1.2 per cent in November, compared to the same month a year before.
"But there is a great deal of uncertainty," said IATA director general Tony Tyler and former CEO of Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways.
"The current volatility of stock markets shows how much the health of the global economy - upon which air cargo depends - remains on a knife-edge," he said.
Less optimistic is UK-based transport consultancy Drewry, quoted by Seattle-based Cargo Facts.
"We are forecasting another year of flat lining growth in 2016 as international air freight volumes are weighed down by lacklustre development in global trade," Drewry said.
"The combination of zero growth and rising capacity will put further pressure on already depressed freight rate levels," said Drewry analysts.
In Seattle, Air Cargo Management Group managing director Bob Dahl projects a three to five per cent growth in air freight demand this year, while saying external conditions will be difficult.
"The economy looks like it's not growing at a great rate," he said. "Issues with China, the stock market having lot of early year jitters, suggest overall market circumstances are not that great."
Air freight matters for future 747-8 orders, because while the four-engine model is being superseded by more efficient twin-engine wide bodies for passenger travel, the biggest Boeing plane continues to be the most capable freight hauler in the world, said the report.
Specifically, it offers tilt-nose loading, a feature that allows unusual heavy cargoes to be loaded. But Boeing has only seven 747 freighters on order now, out of unfilled orders for just 20 model 747-8s.
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