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Stifel index shows confidence in air freight market softening over next six months

THE Stifel Logistics Confidence Index that is based on a survey of 200 logistics professionals showed that confidence in the air freight sector in November fell by 0.3 points to an LCI score of 48.9, which is 8.1 points lower than in the same month a year earlier.

The only trade lane surveyed that recorded a gain was Europe to the US, up 0.1 points to 56.4 points year on year. US to Europe remained unchanged from October 2015 at 46.1 points, while Asia to Europe decreased 0.2 points to 42.4, and Europe to Asia declined by 1.1 points to 37.9, compared to the previous year, reported Atlanta area Air Cargo World. A score of 50 points indicates a neutral response.

With regards to the upcoming peak season 36 per cent of respondents felt the upcoming peak season would be weaker than the average peak, while 33 per cent said they believed it would be significantly weaker, to non-existent.

The survey also questions participants as to how they expect airfreight volumes to look going forward. For the six-month outlook to May 2016, the expectation is for total airfreight to contract by 0.4 points to 52.3 points.

Over the six month period, the US to Europe and Asia to Europe trade lanes expect gains, up 1.7 points to 50.7, and by one point to 52.4, respectively. However, Europe to Asia and Europe to US are anticipated to decline by 2.2 points to 47.5, and by 2.1 points to 58.8, respectively. The report noted that sentiment on the Europe to US trade lane remained high.