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Box volumes set to grow next year on major trades: economist says

CONTAINER shipping lines and freight forwarders serving Europe's two most important deepsea container trades Asia-Europe and transatlantic - are likely to see a return to growth next year.

IHS media economist Mario Moreno told the Container Trade Europe event in Hamburg that while Asia-Europe volumes this year are expected to contract by 3.5 per cent, he predicted that in 2016 westbound volumes from Asia to Europe would grow by 8.1 per cent to reach around 15 million TEU, according to London's Loadstar.

"The Asia-Europe trade has been in a clear downward trend this year, which I find strange because the economic conditions in Europe have improved this compared with 2014, and consumer spending has been leading that," said Mr Moreno.

"But that hasn't been reflected in trade volumes, which I think is about concerns over the Greek situation and the strength of emerging markets which have hampered business confidence," he said.

But these factors were likely to dissipate next year. "Eurozone growth will improve, due to monetary stimulus and pent-up demand - consumer demand is expected to lead the economy once again, and that's important because it boosts demand for Asian goods, and at the same time the euro is expected to strengthen against the yen and yuan," he said.

In contrast, the Europe-Asia backhaul route is expected to grow by 0.8 per cent this year and remain entirely flat next year at 7 million TEU, as China's economy continues to slow and European exports to the country stagnate.

Meanwhile, European exporters were likely to see westbound transatlantic volumes hit an all-time high this year, with 2.1 million TEU shipped from Northern Europe and 1.1 million TEU transported from the Mediterranean, representing year-on-year growth of 4.8 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively.

The same is not true for US exporters on the eastbound leg, however, with European imports of US goods still some 85 per cent below the 2008 pre-crisis peak, a trade Mr Moreno said had been held back by stagnation in France.

However, with recent economic figures showing that the French economy had returned to growth, he predicted that volumes from North America to North Europe would grow next year by 2.2 per cent and to the Mediterranean by 13.3 per cent.