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Now Xmas shipping's nearly done, shippers' fancies turn to spring launches

UPS GLOBAL Forwarding chief says strong consumer spending in the US over the past three months has depleted inventories and the replenishment drive to restock for spring launches will keep air and ocean carriers busy into the first quarter.

"That replenishment is expected to begin shortly," UPS Global Freight Forwarding president Steve Flowers told Newark's Journal of Commerce.

Mr Flowers reports a steady recovery of demand and a sharp rise in freight volumes, with US ports posting good growth numbers in September and October and airlines enjoying an extended peak season driven by online shopping and product launches.

Worsening west coast harbour congestion boosted air cargo volumes from October, especially at the troubled San Pedro port complex of Los Angeles and Long Beach that handles the bulk of American imports.

Mr Flowers sees no substantial change in that area. "We will have the same issues - not enough chassis, labour unrest, congestion - and that will continue to create a situation similar to what we see now," he said.

"There will be a push before Chinese New Year, and we expect there will be another push afterwards. There will probably be a slowdown in the second quarter, but the first quarter of 2015 we think will be similar to what we have seen over the last few weeks," he said.

Falling on February 19, Chinese New Year is later than usual, giving shippers more time to get products overseas. This will generate strong ocean freight volumes early in the year because of rising consumer spending and the improving US economy, said Mr Flowers.

Paul Tsui, chairman of the Hongkong Association of Freight Forwarding and Logistics (HAFFA), said the demand for air cargo had begun to moderate in the past week.

"But everyone is having a very good year and we expect pretty much the same scenario for 2015," he said. "I predict demand will increase once again by the second or third week of January."

Cathay Pacific cargo chief James Woodrow said the US west coast port congestion was "definitely having an effect" on volumes carried by the Hong Kong-based airline and "most forwarders have backlogs."