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Short sea shipping in the Baltic Sea shows potential

The major results for the base year 2012 can be summarised as follows:
• The total containerised shortsea-land volume in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) amounted to 1.3 million TEU, of which 1.1 million TEU were transported between the North Range ports and the BSR and 0.2 million TEU within the BSR.

• The high volume of shortsea-land traffic between the North Range and the Baltic Sea area is in large part made possible by combining feeder and shortsea volumes on board the ships to reach the critical mass for regular liner services. • Container traffic has the highest share on long sea distances, e.g. between the North Range and Russia (0.6 million TEU).

• Intra-Baltic traffic is to a large part ro-ro/ferry traffic. Significant amounts are transported only between German and Polish ports on the one hand and Russia, Finland, and Sweden on the other hand. The base forecast for 2020/2030 is rather bleak due to the shifts induced by the new SECA regulations. Assuming that the additional costs for meeting the stricter sulphur emission standards are eventually borne by the clients, we assume a shift towards routes with shorter sea distances (e.g. ferries) or direct land traffic (where a viable alternative). The base forecast can be summarised as follows:

• Containerised shortsea volumes drop by roughly 10 per cent between 2012 until 2020 and will more or less reach the 2012 level again in 2030.

• Particularly high growth rates are projected for intra-Baltic traffic to/from the Polish ports. Thanks to Maersk’s direct calls with an Asia service in Gdansk, the intra-Baltic feeder network is growing and with it the possibility to develop containerised shortsea traffic in the region. Finally, a total of six different measures were analysed. The impact of the measures on potential volumes in 2020/2030 is summarised below:

• Emission-based bonuses: According to the model calculations, a 30% fuel cost reduction, which would almost even out the additional costs of the SECA regulation, could increase the shortsea potential by 17-18 % in the forecast years, i.e. around 235,000 TEU in 2030. • Subsidize container handling: According to the modal shift model, a 10-Euro subsidy on handling in EU ports would add some 7 to 8 % (approx. 80,000 TEU in 2020 and 100,000 TEU in 2030).

• Support construction of container-compatible ramps at shippers’ hinterland facilities: according to interview partners, some shippers cannot handle containers as their loading ramps are designed for trailers. However, it is unclear how much additional traffic could be generated when promoting the construction of suitable ramps.

• Marketing efforts in Baltic Sea economies: On several trades, the imbalance makes container traffic economically unviable. By creating more backhaul cargo, targeted marketing could generate some additional 50,000 TEU in 2030.

• Grey boxes: Imbalances of single liner operators or forwarders may in some cases even out (e.g. one specialising on exports from Germany and another on exports from Finland). By using the same boxes, the volume of empty transports could be reduced, hence making container transports more competitive. As there is no data available on the individual companies’ imbalances, the potential success of grey boxes is difficult to estimate.

• Motivate carriers to accept shortsea cargo: Some of the large carriers operate own feeder services that are closed to shortsea-land containers. Especially where these services serve niche markets, opening them to shortsea containers could increase shortsea volumes by up to 50,000 TEU in 2030 (based on an appraisal of the service network).

Source: Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics

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