Annual Second Half Surge in Brazilian Iron Ore Exports About to Begin

Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year, as that is when Brazilian iron ore shipments surge ever year. Data released from Vale last week shows that iron ore shipments during the first half of this year, while up considerably on a year-on-year basis, decreased from the second half of 2013 by 23.7 million tons (-14%). Iron ore shipments during the first half of this year totaled 144.7 million tons, while shipments during the second half of 2013 totaled a record 168.4 million tons.

Such a large decrease in Vale’s iron ore shipments occurs during the first half of every year, as Brazilian iron ore production is very seasonal. Every year sees a surge in Brazilian iron ore production (and shipments) occur during the second half of the year, followed by a large decline during the first half of the following year, and then a large increase again during the second half of that year. For example, the first half of 2013 saw Vale’s iron ore shipments total 137.2 million tons. The second half of 2013 saw Vale’s iron ore shipments increase to 168.4 million tons. The first half of 2014 saw Vale’s iron ore shipments fall to 144.7 million tons. The decline is normal, expected, and puts pressure on capesize rates.

A very large decrease in Vale’s iron ore shipments occurs during the first half of every year, and yet capesize rates still managed to average $14,135/day during the first half of this year. This is a far cry from the first half of 2013, which saw capesize rates average only $6,136/day. At present, some analysts hold a flawed view of the capesize market. In spite of the annual decline in first half of the year Brazilian iron ore shipments, capesize rates still averaged $14,135/day and saw several short-term and medium-term surges in rates. As recently as June, capesize rates peaked three separate times with all three of June’s peak coming just a few hundred dollars shy of exceeding the $15,000 level.

While Brazilian iron ore shipment volume and capesize rates experienced a lull in July, a very large surge in Brazilian iron ore shipments is about to begin. Vale’s performance report released last week showed that its iron ore shipments during the first half of this year totaled 144.7 million tons. Vale also announced that its total shipment volume for this year is expected to reach at least 321 million tons. Vale is extremely likely to meet this target (and very possibly exceed it), which means that Vale’s iron ore shipments during the second half of this year will total at least 176.3 million tons. This would mark an increase of 31.6 million tons (22%) from shipments seen during the first half of this year.

Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year; the fundamentals have not changed and Brazilian iron ore shipment volume is following its normal seasonal trends. At the same time, Vale’s iron ore production expansion program also remains on schedule. Going forward, a very large surge in Brazilian iron ore shipments is about to occur.
Source: Commodore Research & Consultancy, as arranged on behalf of Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide