Global freight data show diverging trends for developed and developing economies

The overall picture for global freight shows no change since the previous quarter. Total external trade by sea and air, in tonnes, remains stagnant below pre-crisis levels in EU27 and the USA. Imports and exports by sea continue to show diverging trends.

While imports by sea stagnate below pre-crisis levels, exports by sea in EU27 and the USA reach 29% and 23% above pre-crisis peak albeit showing signs of slowing down for the latter. Total external trade by air for both EU27 and the USA remain -4% and – 3% below pre-crisis levels respectively (Figures 1-5).

EU-27 and USA exports to Asia and BRICS show continuous growth and Asia remains the locomotive of growth. China’s total external trade by sea and air, in values, was 55% and 59% above the pre-crisis peak. Imports to China from Europe and North America by sea outpace export growth and were 85% and 75% above pre-crisis peak. Imports by air also experience similar growth (Figures 6-8).

Intra-Asian trade, which accounts for nearly half of China’s total external trade in value, remains strong. China’s external trade by sea with ASEAN and South Asian countries reached 126% and 39% above pre-crisis levels while external trade by air increased to 30% and 88% above pre-crisis peak.

Freight by sea, air and road to China’s neighbouring CIS countries and Russia grows strongly while rail cargo continues to stagnate below pre-crisis levels. The rail share of external trade has been decreasing since 2005 (Figures 9-10). Inland freight transport reflects diverging trends between developed and emerging economies. Rail freight in the EU area remains below pre-crisis peak while stagnating at pre-crisis levels in the USA. Road freight in the EU area remains 11% below pre-crisis levels.

Growth is stronger in emerging markets; Rail freight volumes in Russia and Turkey were 5% and in China 20% above pre-crisis levels. Road freight volume in Russia, in turn, reached 14% above the pre-crisis peak in 4Q/13 (Figures 11-12).

Source: International Transport Forum