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Stifel Logistics Confidence Index sinks, but stays positive for 2014
THE Stifel Logistics Confidence Index (LCI), compiled in partnership with the UK's Transport Intelligence, showed a month-to-month 0.9 point decline in the overall index reading in December to 56.6 points.
The index is based on a monthly survey of international shippers and forwarders that measures sea and air freight activity across several of Europe's international trade lanes.
Despite the month-to-month drop recorded in December 2013, the LCI remained above the 50-level for 12 months, meaning the market continues to exhibit confidence in air and sea freight forwarding.
"The decline in the index reading was the result of the present situation index declining from December. This index declined 2.8 points, although the expected situation index (for January) rose 1.1 points. The decline seems to indicate an air of caution exists for the global freight forwarding market."
The Stifel Logistics Confidence Index for air freight in December fell 0.1 points month-on-month to 56.5, while the LCI for sea freight in December shed 1.8 points to 56.8 per cent.
Trade lane data for air freight was mixed with increases noted for the US to Europe and Asia to Europe lanes while declines were observed in Europe to the US and Europe to Asia lanes. The mixed data indicates a weak, but improving economy.
However, the "expected situation" increased 1.3 points to 61.2.
The Sea Freight Confidence Index for December decreased 4.4 points compared to November 2013 to 51.9 on all trade lanes with Europe. The decline was attributed to "on-going attempts to raise rates in an environment in which too much capacity exists".
The expected Sea Freight Confidence Index for January on all trade lanes climbed 0.8 points to 61.7 points compared to the previous month.
With the beginning of the New Year, survey respondents were asked if they expected significant improvements in 2014. Most respondents (45 per cent) indicated yes while 39.5 per cent indicated no and 15.5 per cent were unsure.
"Comments indicated that US will likely lead global economic improvements for the year and some comments indicated growth would be on par with that of 2013 until second quarter and then after that, significant improvement is anticipated," the report said.
The index is based on a monthly survey of international shippers and forwarders that measures sea and air freight activity across several of Europe's international trade lanes.
Despite the month-to-month drop recorded in December 2013, the LCI remained above the 50-level for 12 months, meaning the market continues to exhibit confidence in air and sea freight forwarding.
"The decline in the index reading was the result of the present situation index declining from December. This index declined 2.8 points, although the expected situation index (for January) rose 1.1 points. The decline seems to indicate an air of caution exists for the global freight forwarding market."
The Stifel Logistics Confidence Index for air freight in December fell 0.1 points month-on-month to 56.5, while the LCI for sea freight in December shed 1.8 points to 56.8 per cent.
Trade lane data for air freight was mixed with increases noted for the US to Europe and Asia to Europe lanes while declines were observed in Europe to the US and Europe to Asia lanes. The mixed data indicates a weak, but improving economy.
However, the "expected situation" increased 1.3 points to 61.2.
The Sea Freight Confidence Index for December decreased 4.4 points compared to November 2013 to 51.9 on all trade lanes with Europe. The decline was attributed to "on-going attempts to raise rates in an environment in which too much capacity exists".
The expected Sea Freight Confidence Index for January on all trade lanes climbed 0.8 points to 61.7 points compared to the previous month.
With the beginning of the New Year, survey respondents were asked if they expected significant improvements in 2014. Most respondents (45 per cent) indicated yes while 39.5 per cent indicated no and 15.5 per cent were unsure.
"Comments indicated that US will likely lead global economic improvements for the year and some comments indicated growth would be on par with that of 2013 until second quarter and then after that, significant improvement is anticipated," the report said.
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