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Port Tracker: US December imports to rise 1.8pc, up 2.3pc for 2013

IMPORT volume through US major retail container ports is expected to grow 1.8 per cent in December year on year, and should increase 2.3 per cent for the full year over 2012, says the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

"Imports have seen good growth over last year and retailers are well-stocked as the holiday season continues," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold. "Holiday merchandise has made it from the ships to the shelves and the rest is up to the shoppers."

The cargo numbers come as NRF predicts that this year's holiday sales will grow 3.9 per cent over last year to a total of US$602.1 billion. Cargo import figures do not correlate directly with sales because they count only the number of cargo containers, not the value of the merchandise inside them, but are an indicator of retailers' sales expectations.

August, September and October are the months when most of the holiday season's merchandise is brought into the country. The 4.35 million cargo containers handled during those months combined represented a 4.3 per cent increase over last year and accounted for 26.8 per cent of all retail imports for the entire year.

US ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.43 million TEU in October, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 0.4 per cent from September as the peak shipping cycle wound down, but it was up 6.4 per cent from October 2012.

November was estimated at 1.33 million TEU, up 3.6 per cent from last year. December is forecast at 1.31 million TEU, up 1.8 per cent from last year. January 2014 is forecast at 1.35 million TEU, up 3.3 per cent from January 2013; February at 1.18 million TEU, down 7.8 per cent from last year; March at 1.32 million TEU, up 15.9 per cent and April at 1.38 million TEU, up 6.6 per cent.

The total for 2013 is forecast at 16.2 million TEU, up 2.3 per cent from 2012's 15.8 million TEU. The first six months of 2013 totalled 7.8 million TEU, up 1.2 per cent from the first half of 2012.

"The US economy appears to have found a growth spurt," Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said, citing estimated third-quarter gross domestic product growth of 3.6 per cent. "The paradox is that consumer spending remains very cautious and does not come anywhere near the expansion of GDP."

Global Port Tracker covers the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades and Miami and Houston.