Strike or no strike, Port Tracker bullish on Christmas volumes this year

CONTAINERISED Import cargo through US major ports is expected to increase 8.5 per cent in September compared with the same month last year, and strong increases are expected into the holiday season despite talk of an east and Gulf coast dock strike, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by America's National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"Retailers are bringing in more merchandise for the holiday season this year. The question at some ports is whether longshoremen will be on the docks to unload it," said federation vice president Jonathan Gold said.

"Regardless of what happens with contract talks, retailers have contingency plans in place to ensure that merchandise reaches store shelves in time and that there is no disruption for shoppers," said Mr Gold.

Talks between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) broke down in August, and a major ILA local authorised a strike if a new contract for east and Gulf Coast ports wasn't agreed on by the time the current pact expires September 30. Labour and management have agreed to meet again next week under the supervision of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service. Retailers are considering a variety of contingency plans, including diverting cargo to west coast ports, which are represented by a separate union and not affected by this dispute.

US ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.41 million TEU in July, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 2.2 per cent from June and 2.5 per cent from July 2011.

August was estimated at 1.43 million TEU, up 4.4 per cent from last year. September is forecast at 1.49 million TEU, up 8.5 per cent; October at 1.48 million TEU, up 11.7 per cent; November at 1.32 million TEU, up 1.9 per cent; and December at 1.25 million TEU, up 2.7 per cent. January 2013 is forecast at 1.23 million TEU, down 3.8 per cent from January 2012.

The first half of 2012 totalled 7.7 million TEU, up three per cent from the same period last year. For the full year, 2012 is expected to total 16 million TEU, up 4.2 per cent from 2011.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, covers the US ports of Long Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Houston.