Boeing predicts more planes needed, expects robust air cargo growth ahead

BOEING has forecast global annual growth of 5.2 per cent for air cargo alongside equal passenger traffic growth, seeing greater use of bellyhold cargo space on passenger networks.

Overall, long-term demand is expected to reach 34,000 new aircraft valued at US$4.5 trillion of which 68 per cent of this new deliveries will be single-aisle to support growth in low carriers globally and the growth of emerging markets such as China. It forecasts that China will need 5,260 new commercial aircraft valued at $670 billion over the next 20 years.

According to its latest Current Market Outlook 2012-2031, growth of the global fleet will come mainly in conversions of passenger aircraft with $250 billion to be spent on new aircraft to number 950 planes.

Of the 1,120 standard-body freighters needed during this period, almost all will be passenger conversions due to low cost suitable for low-demand routes often used in standard-body operations.

Despite market contractions in 2011 of 2.4 per cent, Boeing predicts growing use of passenger aircraft such as the 777-300ER for bellyhold cargo.

It also predicts freighters to carry up to 60 per cent of the payload and create a required capacity for 2,760 freighter deliveries doubling current freighter fleet from 1,740 in 2011 to 3,200 by 2031.

This will be required to meet growing global demand, particularly for emerging markets that will need fast, efficient movement of goods.

Wide-body freighters will number 710 of which 260 will be new purpose-built to meet demand for express services to support lower cost per tonne. Smaller aircraft will also support schedule flexibility for express carriers. Although conversions on larger freighters are popular, the advantages of new, purpose-built freighters outweigh any gains through efficient performance and reliability.

Market share for twin-aisle segment, such as 787-Dreamliner and 777, will increase by four per cent from 2012 to 2031 with the addition of 7,950 new to accommodate airline expansion into international markets.