Hoehlinger report shows brighter 2012 for containers than most expect

A REPORT on main variables affecting the global container shipping industry shows that growth will slow only slightly in the third quarter and the outlook for the year is far from alarming, according to independent consultant Philippe Hoehlinger, who is also credit director at Danske commodities and credit director at A/S Global Risk Management.

"Based on the information currently available, global container trade is now expected to grow by 6.9 per cent in 2012 [instead of 7.3 per cent] and 8.4 per cent in 2013 [instead of 9.1 per cent]. On a quarterly basis, we note that Q2 12 growth, specifically, has [only] been 100 basis points worse than expected," his report said.

Mr Hoehlinger's forecasts are more positive than most carriers' including that of Maersk Line, which expects volumes to grow less than five per cent in 2012.

"All measurable downside risks continued to fall in the past three months, as evidenced by inflation or volatility. However, a Greek departure from the euro remains the elephant in the room," he said.

The 31-page report also breaks down projected global cargo growth increases into regions and quarters, which show the BRIC region to remain a significant influence on container shipping.

Mr Hoehlinger's latest third quarter macroeconomic analysis shows demand growing at a slower pace than expected, but not alarmingly so.