Bulgaria Shipping Report Q2 2010 - a new market research

One development over the quarter that highlighted how the downturn in the global shipping sector has impacted upon the Bulgarian maritime sector was the decision by the Bulgarian ship-owner Navigation Maritime Bulgare (Navibulgar) to cancel a newbuild vessel contract with Bulgarian shipyard Bulyard in Varna. The vessel had been due for completion in December 2009 and was to be delivered in June 2010. BMI notes that the newbuild was part of Navibulgar's strategy of replacing its aging fleet. The company operates a fleet of 43 vessels, a total of 1,011,126 deadweight tonnes (DWT). The fleet is made up of handymax, handysize, multipurpose vessels and bulk carriers. The company's newest ship is the 2008 Hemus, but BMI notes that the rest of the fleet is substantially older. There are 18 ships in the company's fleet dating back to 1990, and 25 dating back to before 1990.
Asiasis reports that the company has three more newbuilds on order, with three supramaxes due to be delivered in 2011 and 2012. No news is available on the status of these vessels, and in BMI's view they fall outside the downturn window, so Navibulgar might be prepared to take delivery of them as the shipping market is expected to recover in 2011 and 2012.
In the Q210 Bulgaria Shipping Report we forecast an upturn in the country's maritime sector, as trade volumes look set to begin to recover from the downturn of 2009. Imports and exports are expected to increase by 3% and 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) respectively in 2010, and this will have a knock-on effect at the country's ports, as cargo volumes passing through the ports increase.
BMI's shipping team forecasts that Bulgaria's main port, the port of Varna, will experience a projected yo- y throughput growth in total tonnage of 1.7%, while container volumes are expected to increase by 2.5% in 2010.
This is a considerable improvement on 2009 throughput at the port, which due to the downturn in global trade volumes and the decline of Bulgaria's total trade by 14.6% saw the port of Varna's total tonnage fall by 12.9% to 6.7mn tonnes and the facility's container throughput volumes fall by 27.5% to 112,611 20- foot equivalent units (TEUs).
BMI's Q210 Bulgaria Shipping Report not only analyses the environment in the Bulgarian shipping market in 2010, but looks at developments going forward into the mid term (2011-2014), and considers whether the country's trade volumes will increase adequately to allow Bulgaria's main port to reclaim its pre-downturn throughput levels.
The report also contains an in-depth analysis of Bulgaria's main port, the port of Varna. We offer an overview of the port's infrastructure, and consider whether it will be able to cope with cargo growth or whether congestion could become an issue. The port's expansion and development plans are also reviewed, along with the facility's links to the rest of the country's freight transport. The Q210 Bulgaria Shipping Report contains detailed company overviews of the top 11 global container lines. Our shipping desk has prepared an analysis of these companies' varying downturn strategies, and we offer our views and predictions on what 2010 holds for these lines.